Educational tools — not financial advice. These do math on numbers you read off your own chart. They are not trade signals, predictions, or recommendations to buy or sell anything. Trading involves risk of loss.
Estimated historical success-rate ranges for the major chart patterns, gathered in one place. These are broad, timeframe-dependent estimates from technical-analysis literature — useful for context, not a guarantee. No pattern “works” without confirmation and risk management.
| Pattern | Est. success range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Head and Shoulders | 70–85% | The head and shoulders is considered one of the most reliable reversal patterns. Success rate is estimated at 70-85% when properly formed. The pattern is more reliable on higher timeframes and when accompanied by strong volume confirmation. |
| 📉 Double Top | 65–75% | Double tops have an estimated success rate of 65-75%. They're more reliable when the peaks are well-defined and the breakdown has volume confirmation. Failed double tops can lead to strong continuation moves. |
| 📈 Double Bottom | 65–75% | Double bottoms have a success rate of 65-75%, similar to double tops. They work best when the second bottom shows bullish divergence with momentum indicators and the breakout is accompanied by increased volume. |
| 📐 Ascending Triangle | — | Ascending triangles break upward approximately 70% of the time. The pattern is more reliable when it appears during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. Downward breaks do occur and can be traded in the opposite direction. |
| 📉 Descending Triangle | — | Descending triangles break downward approximately 70% of the time. The pattern is most reliable when it appears during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. Upward breaks can occur and should be traded accordingly. |
| 🔺 Symmetrical Triangle | — | Symmetrical triangles continue the prior trend about 60% of the time. They're considered a consolidation pattern showing market indecision. The breakout direction is unpredictable, so most traders wait for confirmation. |
| 🚩 Bull Flag | 65–75% | Bull flags have a high success rate (65-75%) because they form during strong trends. The pattern shows healthy profit-taking before the trend continues. More reliable when the flagpole move was on high volume and the flag has low volume. |
| 🏴 Bear Flag | 65–75% | Bear flags have similar success rates to bull flags (65-75%). They indicate a pause in selling before the downtrend continues. The pattern is more reliable when the flagpole was steep and the flag consolidation is tight. |
| ⬆️ Rising Wedge | 65–70% | Rising wedges are bearish about 65-70% of the time. They show that despite making higher highs, momentum is waning. The pattern is reliable both as a reversal pattern in uptrends and as a continuation in downtrends. |
| ⬇️ Falling Wedge | 65–70% | Falling wedges are bullish about 65-70% of the time. They show that despite making lower lows, selling momentum is waning. The pattern is reliable both as a reversal in downtrends and continuation in uptrends. |
| ☕ Cup and Handle | 65–75% | The cup and handle is one of the most powerful bullish patterns, with success rates of 65-75%. It's most reliable when the cup is U-shaped (not V-shaped), the handle is small, and the breakout has strong volume. |
| 📊 Support & Resistance | — | Support and resistance are the foundation of technical analysis. While not patterns themselves, these levels determine where patterns are likely to form and where breakouts may occur. More touches and higher volume make levels more significant. |
| 🔄 Inverse Head and Shoulders | — | Strong — one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns |
| 📢 Broadening Formation (Megaphone) | — | Moderate — high volatility makes this pattern trickier to trade |
| 🥣 Rounding Bottom (Saucer) | — | Strong — slow formation indicates genuine shift in sentiment |
| 💎 Diamond Top and Bottom | — | Strong when identified correctly — rarity adds significance |
| 📊 Channel Patterns | — | Moderate to Strong — depends on number of boundary touches |
| 🚩 Pennant Pattern | — | Moderate to Strong — typically stronger when the prior trend is clear and breakout volume confirms |
| 🏔️ Triple Top | — | Moderate to Strong — usually stronger when resistance is tested cleanly and breakdown is decisive |
| 🧱 Triple Bottom | — | Moderate to Strong — often stronger when breakout aligns with improving momentum and broad trend support |
Success-rate ranges are approximate estimates from technical-analysis sources; actual reliability varies with timeframe, market regime, volume confirmation, and how strictly the pattern is defined. Educational reference only — not financial advice and not a trade signal.